Subject: RE: money

From: Paul Georgiou <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 31 May 2001 08:49:11 -0400

Of course one could also use triangulation as a method for calculating
results. After all, is that not the norm for figuring out a Pyramid ?

P

-----Original Message-----
From: James P. Salsman
To: [email-masked]
Cc: [email-masked]
Sent: 5/30/01 10:34 PM
Subject: Re: money

>... Do I calculate return using an exponential curve or the S-shaped
> logistics curve? 

Since the number of respondents is not infinite at present, but is 
theoretically unbounded over time, you have to use a sigmoid curve, 
but not this logistical sigmoid:

  Y = a + b / (1 + exp(-c*(X - d)))

That one is wrong because the number of respondents is constantly 
growing, because all those people who have gotten rich can support 
large families.  Instead, you really want the asymmetrical Gompertz 
sigmoid:

  Y = a + b*exp(-exp(-c*(X-d))) 

IN REALITY:  LESS THAN A HUNDREDTH OF A PERCENT OF THOSE WHO SEND 
PONZI SCHEME CHAIN LETTERS EVER MAKE A CENT ON THEM, AND MANY OF 
THOSE PEOPLE END UP IN COURT FACING SERIOUS CHARGES.  PLEASE IGNORE
THEM.  

Cheers,
James